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Lyxor Cross Asset Research Q1 2020 : Skating Onto Thinner Ice

Macro and Market Views The year may well end as it started: on a strong note. 2019 will probably be remembered as a year when it was very costly to be O/W cash compared to anything else. After such an exceptional vintage for both equity and bond markets, could the bullish mode turn sour in 2020? As the manufacturing recession is bottoming out, policy risks have eased and central banks remain accommodative, we struggle to find the catalysts to validate a bearish case. One thing that has made us uncomfortable going forward is the recent expansion of equity multiples, which will be unsustainable if bond yields normalize. EPS growth will have to take the lead, but we find consensus estimates to be overly optimistic. Provided that inflation prints remain below central bank targets, investors should nonetheless be rewarded for taking risks...

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