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Equity markets have now fully recovered lost ground after the U.S. stepped up tariffs on China imports in early May. Bullish sentiment has been fueled by expectations of a reboot of U.S.-China trade talks and central banks cuts. Earnings momentum is improving after the U.S. Q1 earnings season delivered good news in terms of profits. The bond market however, portrays a different picture. Inflation expectations have dropped, especially in the eurozone, signaling a bleak macro outlook. Central banks have turned more dovish as below-target headline inflation offers some scope for lower policy rates. Macro readings remain mixed. Manufacturing confidence is still sliding as the trade war has created greater uncertainty, dragging down investment plans. Growth had levelled off in the spring, but was then hit by the trade war escalation, leading to a string of underwhelming macro readings. Services, which mainly depend on private consumption, have started to edge downwards. A supportive policy mix and tamed inflation have overall propped up activity, but the effects of the latest round of tariff hikes have not been felt yet...

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